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It was not global economic
crisis that hit Pakistan's economy but poor economic
management, postponement of key decisions, difficult
political transition, and neglect of the economy in the
first half of 2008. These views were expressed by Dr Ishrat
Hussain, Dean and Director of the IBA, in his presentation
on 'Pakistan's Current Economy' at an event organised by
Pakistan German Business Forum (PGBF) on Friday, 9TH April,
2010..
Dr Ishrat said that the global economy had shown greater
resilience than expected a year ago. He said that the US
economy was showing signs of positive growth, compared to
the earlier forecasts of stagnant growth. On the other hand,
he said, Europe was facing serious problems because of the
polarisation of strong economies, such as Germany and
France, on the one hand, and Portugal, Ireland, Greece and
Spain on the other, within the Eurozone.
He said that Pakistan's economy has to complete the present
stabilisation phase before it resumes the path towards high
growth, more employment and reduction in poverty. He said
that Pakistan's banking system had withstood the shocks of
global financial crisis quite well, as the reforms carried
out earlier had strengthened the system. However, the next
phase would require reforms in capital markets and
non-banking financial sector so that the real sectors of the
economy could benefit.
He emphasised that the balance of economic power was
shifting towards China, and Asia. Pakistan's businesses have
to shift their attention from the US, Europe and Japan
towards these emerging economies, he added. He said that a
one percent share in China's market would have fetched $12
billion in additional export revenues for Pakistan in 2008.
Regarding Pakistan's economy, Dr. Ishrat said that the
country had witnessed a growth rate at 7 percent. At that
time, the world had tremendous confidence on Pakistan
economy and was ready to invest here. However, the situation
entirely changed, "and we had to go to IMF for assistance in
2009".
He said that the major reason behind this change was the
massive increase in food and fuel prices in the
international market, and the government had not passed on
this difference to the people, resulting in huge additional
expenditures. This pressure forced the government to
borrowing from the central bank, resulting in high inflation
that increased to 25 percent.
"In this changing situation, local currency depreciated, and
we saw capital flight, and the country's forex reserves
declined drastically". He said that the tragic incident of
assassination of Benazir Bhutto also affected foreign
investors' confidence negatively. On the other hand, the
transition from previous to new government also affected the
economy, "and we had to go to the IMF for assistance", he
added.
Earlier, Saifuddin N Zoomkawala, President and CEO of PGBF,
highlighted the aims and objectives of PGBF. He said that
PGBF is the largest forum in the country. The forum is
playing an important role to increase bilateral trade
relations between Pakistan and Germany.
About the country's economy he said that despite turmoil and
upheavals having been seen, especially on economic front, he
was optimistic that Pakistan government is able to overcome
all these problems. Razzak Bengoli, Vice President of PGBF,
said that the people like Dr Ishrat Hussain "are great asset
for the nation". The German Consul General in Karachi Dr
Christian Brecht, other dignitaries of the city and PGBF
members attended the event.
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